Research Article | DOI: https://doi.org/10.31579/2692-9392/064
*Corresponding Author: F. Mairanowski, Professor Husmann Rus. (Germany), Doctor of Sciences, Berlin, Germany.
Citation: F. Mairanowski, D. Below (2021) Calculations of the Spread of the COVID 19 epidemic in New York City based on the Analytical Model. J. Archives of Medical Case Reports and Case Study. 4(3); DOI:10.31579/2692-9392/064
Copyright: © 2021 F. Mairanowski, This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Received: 15 May 2021 | Accepted: 09 July 2021 | Published: 14 July 2021
Keywords: COVID 19; epidemic spread; analytical model; New york city; incidence; vaccination
A detailed description of the model for calculating epidemic spread under conditions of lockdown and mass vaccination of the population is given (ASILV model).
The proposed analytical model adequately describes the development of the epidemic in New York City. The estimates of the total number of infected persons and the seven-day incident rate made using the proposed model correlate well with the observed data in all the stages of epidemic growth.
Model calculations of the spread of the epidemic under different vaccination rates allowed an assessment of the effect of vaccination on the growth of the epidemic. Analysis of seven-day incidence curves at different vaccination intensities led to the preliminary conclusion that at vaccination rates above a minimum value, the emergence of new strains did not lead to a growing epidemic.
Most models used to calculate the epidemic offer only numerical methods for solving. We have developed a simple and versatile analytical model [1, 2, 3, 4, 5], which enables us to quickly analyse the distribution patterns of the coronavirus epidemic.
The control calculations performed have shown a high degree of accuracy for widely varying populations, ranging from small areas of Berlin to large cities and a number of countries, such as the United Kingdom, South Africa, Germany and the United States. The correlation coefficients between the respective estimated and statistical curves reach values between 0.94 and 0.99.
The model was further developed to take into account the effects of abrupt changes in lockdown conditions and mass vaccination of the population. Comparison of the results of calculations by this modified model with data from statistical observations also shows good agreement [6, 7].
The analytical model using functional relationships between the main parameters determining the development of the epidemic makes it possible to assess the effectiveness of limiting the development of the epidemic through both lockdown and vaccination.
Despite some successes in using the proposed simple analytical model, given its great potential due to its higher speed and simplicity of application compared to currently widely used numerical models, there is a need to clarify its possible limitations, in particular related to some initial assumptions made in deriving the model equations.
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